LIVE DECISION WORKSPACE
African swine fever · United Kingdom
Pig population share
Lower exposureHigher exposure
No ASF detected in Great BritainOfficial position · checked 2 Sep 2026 06:15 UTC
PIGS IN SCOPE4.70mFour-nation releases · Jun 2025
PIG OUTPUT£1.84bnUK · 2024 observed
PRODUCTION920ktUK · 2024 observed
WILD BOAR583Forest of Dean · 2025/26
RELEASE INTEGRITYObserved + modelledEvery result carries evidence class
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCE
What an ASF incursion could cost
Scenario estimates, not an outbreak forecast. Change assumptions in Scenario lab.
Decision useCompare the avoided loss and cost of prevention, surveillance and response options.MODELLED · MODERATE CONFIDENCE
DECISION CHAIN
From entry pathway to policy action
WILDLIFE INTERFACE
583Forest of Dean wild-boar watch
46% above the management target of 400
Automated release log
Today
Status check completed. No official ASF status change detected.
26 Aug
England livestock release registered and validation passed.
12 Aug
Economic output source retained; no newer official release found.
SCENARIO LAB
Test assumptions. Keep evidence visible.
This is a decision model, not an outbreak forecast.
LOSS COMPOSITION
PROVISIONALWhat drives the scenario
Intervention value
INTELLIGENCE LIBRARY
Find the evidence, model or decision you need.
One searchable catalogue across diseases, places, sectors and releases.
EVIDENCE & METHODS
Every result should explain itself.
Sources, assumptions, validation and reproducibility in one place.
Method in brief
- Register and preserve each official source release.
- Harmonise geography, disease, species, units and time.
- Build hazard, exposure, impact and intervention measures.
- Run range and sensitivity analysis.
- Validate, certify and publish—or withhold the output.
Current publication gate
✓ National pig total present
✓ Regional shares reconcile
✓ Economic values carry dates
✓ Assumptions labelled provisional
✓ Official-status source registered
Source and assumption register
| Measure | Value / role | Classification | As of | Source |
|---|
Versioned model contract
MODELasf-pig-impact-cba
VERSION0.2-provisional
RUN IDGBR-ASF-PIG-20260902-001
PUBLICATIONDecision prototype