SYNTERA BIORISK
Disease models
Institutional access
ExploreSYNTERA BIORISK
Shared modelling workspace

Impact Calculator

Test assumptions for any registered country–disease frame without detaching the model from its evidence.

Scenario Lab Uses the same central profile, calculation engine, classifications and Decision Brief as the main Decision lens.
Decision lens · event frame

Italy · Foot-and-mouth disease

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-09-07The WOAH status framework and national notification source are registered; no current domestic outbreak count is inferred.observed
Susceptible exposure · 2020 Agricultural Census/FSS22,676,170 headobserved
Published economicsUnavailableunavailable
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceUnavailable

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

unavailable · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

22,676,170 head · 2.5% affected · 300 EUR/head · 90.7m cost · 60% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

Why these assumptions?
Inspect BCR calculation fingerprint
Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
22,676,170 head · 2020 Agricultural Census/FSS
Affected share
2.5% · planning assumption
Loss per head
300 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
90.7m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
60% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions; programme cost scales with country-specific susceptible exposure.
Sources
Italian Ministry of Health · World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) · Eurostat · Eurostat GISCO
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence or case counts.
  • Eurostat livestock exposure retains unavailable cells and independent rounding.
  • No UK, France, Netherlands or Germany evidence is reused as country-specific evidence.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed national values.
Institutional service

Build a private BioRisk portfolio

Translate the public evidence architecture into a governed portfolio for your organisation, with private assumptions, operational thresholds and decision briefs kept separate from the public register.

About the founder
Institutional briefingDiscuss the decision contextCountry/disease stress testFrame an evidence-led exercisePrivate portfolioScope a governed deployment