SYNTERA BIORISK
Disease models
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Shared modelling workspace

Impact Calculator

Test assumptions for any registered country–disease frame without detaching the model from its evidence.

Scenario Lab Uses the same central profile, calculation engine, classifications and Decision Brief as the main Decision lens.
Decision lens · event frame

Germany · Newcastle disease

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-03-27After 30 years without outbreaks, multiple Newcastle disease events were detected in commercial poultry in Brandenburg and Bavaria in February 2026; compulsory vaccination remains central.observed
Susceptible exposure · 1 March 2023156,300,900 headobserved
Published economicsUnavailableunavailable
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceUnavailable

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

unavailable · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

156,300,900 head · 2.5% affected · 6 EUR/head · 45m cost · 65% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

Why these assumptions?
Inspect BCR calculation fingerprint
Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
156,300,900 head · 1 March 2023
Affected share
2.5% · planning assumption
Loss per head
6 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
45m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
65% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.
Sources
Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) · German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG)
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Länder livestock exposure retains Destatis rounding and disclosure-control cells.
  • No UK, France or Netherlands economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused as German evidence.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed German values.
Institutional service

Build a private BioRisk portfolio

Translate the public evidence architecture into a governed portfolio for your organisation, with private assumptions, operational thresholds and decision briefs kept separate from the public register.

About the founder
Institutional briefingDiscuss the decision contextCountry/disease stress testFrame an evidence-led exercisePrivate portfolioScope a governed deployment