SYNTERA BIORISK
Disease models
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Shared modelling workspace

Impact Calculator

Test assumptions for any registered country–disease frame without detaching the model from its evidence.

Scenario Lab Uses the same central profile, calculation engine, classifications and Decision Brief as the main Decision lens.
Decision lens · event frame

France · Newcastle disease

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-04-30The registered April 2026 official briefing says France's latest outbreaks were pigeon holdings in 2011, 2017 and 2023.observed
Susceptible exposure · 2025 provisional240,768,000 headobserved
Published economicsUnavailableunavailable
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceUnavailable

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

unavailable · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

240,768,000 head · 5% affected · 6 EUR/head · 35m cost · 50% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

Why these assumptions?
Inspect BCR calculation fingerprint
Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
240,768,000 head · 2025 provisional
Affected share
5% · planning assumption
Loss per head
6 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
35m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
50% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are Syntera planning assumptions and must be stress-tested before use.
Sources
DRAAF Bretagne · Agreste - French Ministry of Agriculture statistical service · Institut national de l'information géographique et forestière
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Regional livestock exposure is observed Agreste data, not a national allocation.
  • No UK economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed France values.
  • No formal current freedom status is inferred from the absence of a newer outbreak in the briefing.
Institutional service

Build a private BioRisk portfolio

Translate the public evidence architecture into a governed portfolio for your organisation, with private assumptions, operational thresholds and decision briefs kept separate from the public register.

About the founder
Institutional briefingDiscuss the decision contextCountry/disease stress testFrame an evidence-led exercisePrivate portfolioScope a governed deployment