Evidence & methods
Italy · African swine fever
The source and assumption register behind the current profile, including evidence grain, classification, model version and validation status.
ITA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 · CBA v1Release 2026-09-07 · READY_FOR_PUBLICATION
Status evidence2026-09-07observed
Exposure evidence2020 Agricultural Census/FSSobserved
Economic evidenceUnavailableunavailable
Decision frameeventEUR · no FX conversion
Source register
URLs open the original publisher record4 sources used by this profile
| Organisation / title | Date | Geographic grain | Classification | Model version | Validation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian Ministry of HealthPrevention and control of major animal diseases | 2026-06-08 | official national animal-disease control portal | official | ITA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| European CommissionAfrican swine fever control and EU regionalisation | 2026-09-07 | current EU ASF restricted-zone framework under Regulation (EU) 2023/594 | official | ITA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| EurostatMain livestock indicators by NUTS 2 region (ef_lsk_main) | 2020 | official national and NUTS 2 livestock exposure; Agricultural Census/FSS, heads | official | ITA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| Eurostat GISCONUTS 2021 statistical-unit geometry, 1:10 million | 2021 | official NUTS 2 geometry and identifiers | official | ITA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
Assumption register
Editable planning model
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions; programme cost scales with country-specific susceptible exposure.- Official status is not silently converted into prevalence or case counts.
- Eurostat livestock exposure retains unavailable cells and independent rounding.
- No UK, France, Netherlands or Germany evidence is reused as country-specific evidence.
- Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed national values.
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