Evidence & methods
Germany · African swine fever
The source and assumption register behind the current profile, including evidence grain, classification, model version and validation status.
DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 · CBA v1Release 2026-09-07 · READY_FOR_PUBLICATION
Status evidence2026-09-01observed
Exposure evidence1 March 2023observed
Economic evidence€164m combined published state-control benchmarkliterature-derived
Decision frameeventEUR · no FX conversion
Source register
URLs open the original publisher record6 sources used by this profile
| Organisation / title | Date | Geographic grain | Classification | Model version | Validation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI)Maps of African swine fever | 2026-09-01 | current weekly German ASF map and TSIS caveat | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity (BMLEH)African swine fever | 2026-09-07 | current German affected-state context and domestic-pig outbreak history | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)Agricultural holdings with livestock and livestock population: Länder, 1 March 2023, species | 2023-03-01 | official national and 16-Länder livestock exposure; representative survey, rounded and disclosure-controlled | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG)Administrative Areas 1:250,000, 1 January 2026 - Länder WFS | 2026-01-01 | official Länder geometry and identifiers; simplified and grouped for web display under dl-de/by-2-0 | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| State of BrandenburgPartial lifting of ASF restricted zone II | 2023-07-21 | €104m reimbursed Brandenburg wild-boar ASF-control benchmark | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
| Saxon State GovernmentAnimal diseases: authorities face permanent demands | 2026-01-13 | €60m cumulative Saxon ASF-control expenditure benchmark | official | DEU-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY_FOR_PUBLICATION | Open |
Assumption register
Editable planning model
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.- Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
- Länder livestock exposure retains Destatis rounding and disclosure-control cells.
- No UK, France or Netherlands economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused as German evidence.
- Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed German values.
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