Evidence & methods
France · Highly pathogenic avian influenza
The source and assumption register behind the current profile, including evidence grain, classification, model version and validation status.
FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 · CBA v1Release 2026-09-07 · READY
Status evidence2026-09-02observed
Exposure evidence2025 provisionalobserved
Economic evidenceapproximately EUR100m second duck-vaccination campaignofficial-estimate
Decision frameeventEUR · no FX conversion
Source register
URLs open the original publisher record5 sources used by this profile
| Organisation / title | Date | Geographic grain | Classification | Model version | Validation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French Ministry of AgricultureAvian influenza: situation in France | 2026-09-02 | Official source scope retained | official | FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY | Open |
| Agreste - French Ministry of Agriculture statistical serviceStatistique agricole annuelle 2010-2025 - provisional regional data | 2025-12-31 | 2025 national and 18-region cattle, sheep, goat, pig and Gallus exposure | official | FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY | Open |
| Institut national de l'information géographique et forestièreADMIN EXPRESS COG 2026 - regions | 2026-01-01 | official COG-compatible geometry for all 18 regions | official | FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY | Open |
| French Ministry of AgricultureLaunch of the second mandatory duck-vaccination campaign | 2024-10-01 | Official source scope retained | official | FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY | Open |
| French Ministry of AgricultureFrance avian-influenza vaccination plan | 2026-05-27 | Official source scope retained | official | FRA-ANIMAL-DISEASE-PORTFOLIO-v1 | READY | Open |
Assumption register
Editable planning model
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are Syntera planning assumptions and must be stress-tested before use.- Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
- Regional livestock exposure is observed Agreste data, not a national allocation.
- No UK economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused.
- Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed France values.
- The legal freedom status after the current outbreak is not inferred.
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