SYNTERA BIORISK
SpeciesPoultry & birdsReleaseNetherlands · 2026-09-07
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Country–disease dossierNetherlands · Highly pathogenic avian influenza
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Decision lens · event frame

Netherlands · Highly pathogenic avian influenza

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-07-17Twenty infected or culled kept-bird locations are listed for 2026 through 17 July; the national risk was assessed as low to moderate when the housing order ended on 11 June.observed
Susceptible exposure · 2025 final87,721,700 headobserved
Published economics€9.999m HPAI control expenditureobserved
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidence€9.999m HPAI control expenditure

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

observed · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

87,721,700 head · 4% affected · 7 EUR/head · 40m cost · 55% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

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Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
87,721,700 head · 2025 final
Affected share
4% · planning assumption
Loss per head
7 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
40m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
55% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.
Sources
Government of the Netherlands · Government of the Netherlands · Statistics Netherlands (CBS) · PDOK / Dutch Cadastre (Kadaster) · Government of the Netherlands
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Province livestock exposure is observed CBS data, not a national allocation.
  • No UK or France economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed Netherlands values.
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