SYNTERA BIORISK
SpeciesPigs & wild boarReleaseItaly · 2026-09-07
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  2. Europe
  3. Italy
  4. African swine fever
Country–disease dossierItaly · African swine fever
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Decision lens · event frame

Italy · African swine fever

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-09-07Italy is included in the EU ASF regionalisation framework. This release does not infer cases or prevalence from restricted-zone boundaries.observed
Susceptible exposure · 2020 Agricultural Census/FSS8,727,450 headobserved
Published economicsUnavailableunavailable
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceUnavailable

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

unavailable · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

8,727,450 head · 2% affected · 250 EUR/head · 34.91m cost · 60% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

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Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
8,727,450 head · 2020 Agricultural Census/FSS
Affected share
2% · planning assumption
Loss per head
250 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
34.91m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
60% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions; programme cost scales with country-specific susceptible exposure.
Sources
Italian Ministry of Health · European Commission · Eurostat · Eurostat GISCO
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence or case counts.
  • Eurostat livestock exposure retains unavailable cells and independent rounding.
  • No UK, France, Netherlands or Germany evidence is reused as country-specific evidence.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed national values.
Institutional service

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