SYNTERA BIORISK
SpeciesPoultry & birdsReleaseGermany · 2026-09-07
  1. Global Overview
  2. Europe
  3. Germany
  4. Newcastle disease
Country–disease dossierGermany · Newcastle disease
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Decision lens · event frame

Germany · Newcastle disease

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-03-27After 30 years without outbreaks, multiple Newcastle disease events were detected in commercial poultry in Brandenburg and Bavaria in February 2026; compulsory vaccination remains central.observed
Susceptible exposure · 1 March 2023156,300,900 headobserved
Published economicsUnavailableunavailable
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceUnavailable

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

unavailable · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

156,300,900 head · 2.5% affected · 6 EUR/head · 45m cost · 65% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

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Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
156,300,900 head · 1 March 2023
Affected share
2.5% · planning assumption
Loss per head
6 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
45m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
65% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.
Sources
Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) · German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG)
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Länder livestock exposure retains Destatis rounding and disclosure-control cells.
  • No UK, France or Netherlands economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused as German evidence.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed German values.
Institutional service

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