Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.
official-estimate · source scope retained Decision lens · event frame
Germany · Foot-and-mouth disease
Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.
Official status · 2026-05-29One outbreak was confirmed in water buffalo in Brandenburg on 10 January 2025. No further cases occurred and WOAH reinstated whole-country freedom without vaccination on 14 April 2025.observed
Susceptible exposure · 1 March 202335,213,000 headobserved
Published economicsNearly €8m Brandenburg damage estimateofficial-estimate
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes
Published, modelled, and private values remain separate
35,213,000 head · 2.5% affected · 300 EUR/head · 150m cost · 60% effectiveness.
Final outputs appear only after activation and run.Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.
Request secure accessIllustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.
The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.
Inspect BCR calculation fingerprint
- Input source
- Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
- Exposure
- 35,213,000 head · 1 March 2023
- Affected share
- 2.5% · planning assumption
- Loss per head
- 300 EUR · planning assumption
- Programme cost
- 150m EUR · planning assumption
- Effectiveness
- 60% · planning assumption
- Time horizon
- One event
- Discount rate
- 0% · discounting not applied
- Formula
- potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
- Evidence class
- generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
- Limitations
- Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.
- Sources
- Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food (BMEL) · World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) · German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG) · Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity (BMLEH)
Assumptions and evidence
Registered basis
- Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
- Länder livestock exposure retains Destatis rounding and disclosure-control cells.
- No UK, France or Netherlands economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused as German evidence.
- Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed German values.
Institutional service
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