SYNTERA BIORISK
SpeciesPigs & wild boarReleaseGermany · 2026-09-07
  1. Global Overview
  2. Europe
  3. Germany
  4. African swine fever
Country–disease dossierGermany · African swine fever
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Decision lens · event frame

Germany · African swine fever

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-09-01ASF remains present in German wild boar. Federal reporting identifies occurrence in seven Länder, while all listed domestic-pig outbreaks through 2024 were eradicated.observed
Susceptible exposure · 1 March 202322,377,300 headobserved
Published economics€164m combined published state-control benchmarkliterature-derived
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidence€164m combined published state-control benchmark

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

literature-derived · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

22,377,300 head · 2% affected · 250 EUR/head · 90m cost · 60% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

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Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
22,377,300 head · 1 March 2023
Affected share
2% · planning assumption
Loss per head
250 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
90m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
60% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are editable Syntera planning assumptions.
Sources
Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) · Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity (BMLEH) · German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) · Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG) · State of Brandenburg · Saxon State Government
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Länder livestock exposure retains Destatis rounding and disclosure-control cells.
  • No UK, France or Netherlands economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused as German evidence.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed German values.
Institutional service

Build a private BioRisk portfolio

Translate the public evidence architecture into a governed portfolio for your organisation, with private assumptions, operational thresholds and decision briefs kept separate from the public register.

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Institutional briefingDiscuss the decision contextCountry/disease stress testFrame an evidence-led exercisePrivate portfolioScope a governed deployment