SYNTERA BIORISK
SpeciesPoultry & birdsReleaseFrance · 2026-09-07
  1. Global Overview
  2. Europe
  3. France
  4. Highly pathogenic avian influenza
Country–disease dossierFrance · Highly pathogenic avian influenza
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Decision lens · event frame

France · Highly pathogenic avian influenza

Official evidence remains visible. Unsupported intervention economics are withheld from the public decision view.

Official status · 2026-09-02One HPAI outbreak has been detected in the season beginning August 2026; the national risk level remains negligible since 3 June 2026.observed
Susceptible exposure · 2025 provisional240,768,000 headobserved
Published economicsapproximately EUR100m second duck-vaccination campaignofficial-estimate
Benefit-cost ratioBCR not estimatedILLUSTRATIVE
Economic evidence classes

Published, modelled, and private values remain separate

Published economic evidenceapproximately EUR100m second duck-vaccination campaign

Direct outbreak loss · programme expenditure · compensation · trade loss. Unregistered components remain explicitly unavailable.

official-estimate · source scope retained
Syntera modelled scenarioPreview ready

240,768,000 head · 6% affected · 8 EUR/head · 100m cost · 60% effectiveness.

Final outputs appear only after activation and run.
Client/private scenarioRestricted institutional workspace

Private prices, budgets, uptake, and client parameters are not stored in this public browser.

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ILLUSTRATIVE

Illustrative scenario—country-specific intervention evidence unavailable.

The registered values are a transparent planning scenario, not a forecast or country-specific intervention estimate.

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Input source
Registered susceptible exposure plus Syntera planning assumptions
Exposure
240,768,000 head · 2025 provisional
Affected share
6% · planning assumption
Loss per head
8 EUR · planning assumption
Programme cost
100m EUR · planning assumption
Effectiveness
60% · planning assumption
Time horizon
One event
Discount rate
0% · discounting not applied
Formula
potential loss = exposure × affected share × loss per affected head; avoided loss = potential loss × effectiveness; BCR = avoided loss ÷ programme cost
Evidence class
generic-syntera-planning-scenario · ILLUSTRATIVE
Limitations
Exploratory decision scenario, not an observed loss, budget, forecast or official effectiveness estimate. Defaults are Syntera planning assumptions and must be stress-tested before use.
Sources
French Ministry of Agriculture · Agreste - French Ministry of Agriculture statistical service · Institut national de l'information géographique et forestière · French Ministry of Agriculture · French Ministry of Agriculture
Assumptions and evidence

Registered basis

  • Official status is not silently converted into prevalence.
  • Regional livestock exposure is observed Agreste data, not a national allocation.
  • No UK economic coefficient or intervention effect is reused.
  • Planning-model defaults are editable Syntera assumptions, not observed France values.
  • The legal freedom status after the current outbreak is not inferred.
Institutional service

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